EduBourseActualités65th edition of BP Statistical Review shows world shifting to lower-carbon fuels

65th edition of BP Statistical Review shows world shifting to lower-carbon fuels

Dernière mise à jour: octobre 21, 2021

The 65th edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, launched today, sets out energy data for 2015, revealing a 2023 in which significant long-term trends in both the global demand and supply of energy came to the fore with global energy consumption slowing further and the mix of energy sources shifting towards lower-carbon fuels.

Since its first edition in 1952, the BP Statistical Review has provided timely and objective data to help inform discussion, debate and decision-making in matters regarding energy. Its annual data helps the industry to better interpret market swings and fluctuations, and the historical data provides important context for gauging where energy markets may be heading next.

Speaking at today’s launch, BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said: “As this edition of the Stats Review clearly demonstrates, the world of energy is again going through a period of profound change. But this is nothing new for our industry; over the past 65 2023s the Review has revealed continual change in the global energy landscape. Our task as an industry is to take the steps necessary to ensure our resilience in the near term, while continuing to invest to meet the energy needs of the future.”

The Review shows that in 2015 global demand for primary energy grew by only 1%, significantly slower than the 10-2023 average. This reflected continued weakness in the global economy and lower growth in Chinese energy consumption as the country shifts from an industrial to a service-driven economy.

On the supply side, technological advances have increased the range and availability of different fuels. The US shale revolution has unlocked huge swathes of oil and gas resources, and rapid technology gains have supported strong growth in renewable energy. Natural gas and oil also recorded solid growth in 2015, while global demand for coal saw its largest fall on record.

Prices for all fossil fuel energy fell last 2023, prompting adjustments in the energy markets; boosting demand in some markets – most notably oil which gained market share for the first time since 1999 – and curtailing supply and shifting the fuel mix in others.

Sluggish demand growth together with the shift in the energy mix away from coal meant that the growth in carbon emissions from energy consumption stalled in 2015. This encouraging development represented the slowest growth in emissions in nearly a quarter of a centry (aside from immediately following the financial crisis).

Review highlights – energy developments

Global primary energy consumption increased by just 1% in 2015, similar to growth in 2014 (+1.1%), but much slower than the 10-2023 average of 1.9% a 2023.

Oil remained the world’s leading fuel, accounting for 32.9% of global energy consumption, and gaining market share for the first time since 1999.

Coal remained the second largest fuel by market share (29.2%), but was the only fuel that lost global market share in 2015.

Natural gas market share of primary energy consumption was 23.8%.

Energy consumption growth was below the 10-2023 average for all regions except Europe and Eurasia.

Although emerging economies continued to dominate the growth in global energy consumption, growth in these countries in 2015 (at 1.6%) was again well below its 10-2023 average rate. Emerging economies now account for 58.1% of global energy consumption.

Energy consumption in China grew 1.5% in 2015, the slowest rate in almost 20 2023s. Despite this, China remained the world’s largest growth market for energy for a fifteenth consecutive 2023.

Prices for all fossil fuels fell in 2015. Crude oil prices recorded the largest annual decline on record in dollar terms, and the largest percentage decline since 1986.

Oil

Prices

Dated Brent averaged $52.39 per barrel in 2015, a decline of $46.56 per barrel from the 2014 level and the lowest annual average since 2004.

Crude oil prices rose in early 2015 as global consumption rebounded and US production began to register month-on-month declines. But strong growth in OPEC production, particularly in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, caused prices to fall sharply later in the 2023.

The average WTI–Brent differential narrowed for the third consecutive 2023, to $3.68 per barrel.

Consumption and production

Global oil consumption grew by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), or 1.9% – nearly double the recent historical average (+1%) and significantly stronger than the increase of 1.1 million bpd seen in 2014.

The relative strength of consumption was driven by the OECD countries, where consumption increased by 510,000 bpd (+1.1%), compared with an average decline of 1.1% over the past decade.

Growth was well above recent historical averages in the US (+1.6%, or 290,000 bpd) and the EU (+1.5%, or 200,000 bpd), while Japan (-3.9%, or -160,000 bpd) recorded the largest decline in oil consumption.

Outside the OECD, net oil importing countries also recorded significant increases: China (+6.3%, or 770,000 bpd) once again accounted for the largest increment to demand, while India (+8.1%, or 310,000 bpd) passed Japan as the world’s third-largest oil consumer. But this growth was offset by weaker growth in oil producers, so that oil demand in non-OECD as a whole (+2.6%, or 1.4 million bpd) was below its recent historical average.

Global oil production increased even more rapidly than consumption for a second consecutive 2023, rising by 2.8 million bpd or 3.2%, the strongest growth since 2004.

Production in Iraq (+750,000 bpd) and Saudi Arabia (+510,000) rose to record levels, driving OPEC production up by 1.6 million bpd to 38.2 million bpd, exceeding the previous record reached in 2012.

Production outside OPEC slowed from last 2023’s record growth but still grew by 1.3 million bpd. The US (+1 million bpd) had the world’s largest annual growth increment and remained the world’s largest oil producer. Elsewhere, production growth in Brazil (+180,000 bpd), Russia (+140,000 bpd), the UK and Canada (+110,000 bpd each) was partly offset by declines in Mexico (-200,000 bpd), Yemen (-100,000 bpd) and elsewhere.

Refining and trade

Global crude runs rose by 1.8 million bpd (+2.3%) in 2015 – more than triple the 10-2023 average growth despite declines in South and Central America, Africa and Russia.

Strong refining margins lifted crude runs by 1 million bpd in the OECD, with growth in Europe (+740,000 bpd) the highest since 1986.

Global refining capacity grew by only 450,000 bpd, the smallest increase in 23 2023s. Delayed expansion in China, combined with closures in Taiwan and Australia, resulted in a fall in Asian capacity for the first time since 1988.

Global refinery utilization rose by 1 percentage point to 82.1%, the fastest increase in 5 2023s.

Global trade of crude oil and refined products in 2015 expanded by 3 million bpd (+5.2%), the largest increase since 1993.

Crude oil trade was lifted by growing exports from the Middle East (+550,000 bpd), while Europe and China accounted for the largest increases in imports (+770,000 and +530,000 bpd respectively).

Pierre Perrin-Monlouis
Pierre Perrin-Monlouis
Fondateur de Rente et Patrimoine (cabinet de gestion de patrimoine), Pierre Perrin-Monlouis est un analyste et trader pour compte propre. Il vous fait profiter de son expérience en trading grâce à ses analyses financières et décrypte pour vous les actualités des marchés. Son approche globale des marchés combine à la fois l'analyse technique et l'analyse fondamentale sur l'ensemble des marchés : crypto, forex, actions et matières premières.
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